The Edge: Sustained and Inclusive Growth, Governance and Conflict.... by Datuk Dr. Zainal Aznam Yusof

Sustained and Inclusive Growth, Governance and Conflict

by Datuk Dr. Zainal Aznam Yusof, The Edge 

The near-Middle East is on fire. The recent conflicts in the region highlight the dangers of bad governance. Conflicts and demands for changes to the governments that started from Tunisia have spread to Algeria, Egypt, Yemen, Jordan and Sudan. Libya and Morocco could be next in line and the conflicts might even spread to the heart of the Middle East to Saudi Arabia and then beyond to the smaller Muslim states.

For us in East and Southeast Asia, the worst that can happen is to say, smugly, that we are different and that it could never happen here; that is a wrong and dangerous attitude. There have been demonstration in China and Thailand (the capital and in the south). There is no end to conflicts in the southern islands of the Philippines.

Military skirmishes between Thailand and Cambodia have resurfaced. Myanmar (Burma to some) continues to be a state governed by suppression. Running and meshing through to these conflicts are those generated by terrorists. A contagion of conflict is always a possibility; no country can say that it is immune to its virus.

Ethnic Fragmentation and Polarisation
Many countries have a long history of many conflicts; they can recur. The May 1969 racial riots in Malaysia were seminal conflicts. But there is nothing now to show that we are immune from racial conflicts; they are just shimmering below the surface.

The burning of churches and temples, insulting behaviour towards sensitive religious symbols, a lack of sensitivity to sensitive-load words, unhappiness over opaque religious conversions, the demarcation of of the powers of the syariah and civil courts, and insults to historical experiences are just disguised and quasi-forms of suppressed conflicts. Ethnic fragmentation and polarisation have become endemic and pervasive, and they are fertilisers for conflicts.

We are also not short of irresponsible politicians who stir and stoke the sensitive parts of the national psyche, edging people towards conflicts and acting as paid handmaidens of violence. The template for politicians in ethnically diverse societies like ours is to generate animosities (and exploit ethnic insecurities and deep seated prejudices) and conflicts is well established.

There are no clear and effective counter-measures to check these politicians on both sides of the political divide. Our arsenal of conflict-enhancing behaviour is alive and well.

After more than 50 years of independent growth, we are no closer to being racially blind. Food, shelter, security, economic opportunties and fairness are necessary conditions for blunting ethnic conflicts, but they are not sufficient. Economic growth, so far, has not really helped inter-ethnic integration.

While the poor are still with us, their size has been reduced. Current and future conflicts in Malaysia will be fueled more by an outraged sense of inequality and unfairness in economic opportunities, and by dangerous politicians on both sides of the political divide.

Sustained , Inclusive and Environmentally Friendly Growth is crucial
Still, it appears that growth is a crucial element in keeping conflicts and violence at bay. Economic growth provides jobs and offer opportunities. Rising income is the glue of stability and help security, but we know that growth alone is not enough.

The inequality of income (the income gap between urbanites and rural folks, for example) that accompanies growth must not be so huge and worsening if the goof things that growth brings are not to be swamped. Inequality by itself can be bad for growth.

Policies matter
As the economy advances to the high income stage, there is some hope that conflict and violence can be muted. At lower income levels, it seems inequality in income can be bad but at higher levels of income, the adverse effects of inequality can be contained.

But there is no guarantee that these expectations will always materialise and fall like manna from the heavens; these hopes are grounded on probabilities. Policies of the right sort do matter. Conflicts and violence can come from sources other than income inequality.

Institutions of Governance
Institutions and their governance will matter a great deal too in containing grievances and latent conflicts from erupting. The list of grievances from the failures of these institutions is very long and growing. The reformation of legislative, executive and judicial institutions must take precedence and accorded top priority; reformation must also be continuous to adapt to changing circumstances.

The post-2008 general phase has shown up many shortcomings of the Federal and state constitutions. They have slumbered long enough and efforts must now be taken to resolve these constitutional matters, including the role and power of constitutional agents. We should welcome the contestations between the federal and state governments because they throw up the lacunae of the constitutional provisions.

Sweeping the many problems relating to the constitution(s) under the carpet will simply encourage more grievances. The pace of institutional reforms is slacking and there is great reluctance to try out new institutions; for example the Equal Opportunities Commission that was proposed in the New Economic Model has been dropped.

Limit Tenure of Holders of Power
Although power corrupts, it is a universal rule that no one gives up power willingly (for example, Mubarak in Egypt). But, the longer those in power cling to their posts, the greater the lure of corruption. All holders of power, especially autocrats and dictators, tend to see themselves as indispensable.

One way is to amend the constitution, or pass a separate law, that limits the tenure of power holders for a fixed period; but this is not foolproof; that is still the direction that Malaysia should take. If there is a much shorter tenure, maybe violence will cease to be an option to change leadership that has outlived its usefulness.

From the rulers to the ruled, from the legislators to the enforcers, the rule of law must prevail. If conflict is part of the natural order, and if it unavoidable, then efforts must be made to mitigate its impact, spread and duration. Sustained, inclusive and environmentally friendly economic growth and good governance can do their part, but they have their limits.

*Datuk Dr. Zainal Aznam Yusof is an economist and policy consultant. Previously with ISIS Malaysia, he is a council member of the National Economic Advisory Council.